Hierarchical triples versus globular clusters binary black hole merger eccentricity distributions compete and evolve with redshift

The formation mechanisms of merging binary black holes (BBHs) observed by the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA collaboration remain uncertain. Detectable eccentricity provides a powerful diagnostic for distinguishing between different formation channels, but resolving their eccentricity distributions requires the detection of a large number of eccentric mergers. Future gravitational wave detectors such as the Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer will detect tens of thousands of BBH mergers out to redshifts z ≥ 10, making it critical to understand the redshift-dependent evolution of eccentricity distributions. We simulate this evolution for two key channels: dynamical assembly in globular clusters (GCs), which leads to rapid, eccentric mergers, and hierarchical triples in the field, where three-body dynamics can induce eccentricity in the inner binary. When considering all BBH mergers, the GC channel dominates overall, consistent with previous studies. However, when focusing on mergers with detectable eccentricity in next-generation detectors, we find that hierarchical triples dominate the eccentric merger rate at 0 ≤ z ≤ 4, with GC mergers becoming competitive at higher redshifts. Across all model variations, eccentric mergers in the local Universe (z ≲ 1) have significant contributions from field triples, challenging the common view that such systems primarily form in dense environments. We show that, regardless of cluster and stellar evolution uncertainties, hierarchical triples contribute at least 30 per cent of eccentric mergers across a large range of redshifts.