Debt crises forewarned: stochastics matter: an early-warning indicator for dubt sustainability
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| Publication date | 28-11-2013 |
| Publisher | London: VOX |
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| Abstract | The sustainability of government debt cannot be determined with certainty. This column presents an early warning indicator to predict sovereign debt crises using a stochastic simulation framework. What counts is the risk of a significant rise in public debt, more so than the expected evolution of the debt level. A key determinant of the indicator is the quality of budgetary policies in controlling the government budget in the event of adverse shocks. |
| Document type | Web publication or website |
| Language | English |
| Published at |
http://www.voxeu.org/article/debt-crises-forewarned-stochastics-matter
(Final published version)
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