Currents of trust Insights from transboundary water cooperation in the Sava and Syrdarya river basins

This research examines how trust manifests in transboundary water cooperation, moving beyond the simplistic binary of trust and mistrust. It conceptualizes trust as multi-dimensional, multi-level, and dynamic, shaped by interactions, institutions, and (professional) cultures. The research compares two case studies: the Sava River Basin in post-Yugoslav Southeastern Europe and the Syrdarya River Basin in post-Soviet Central Asia.
The findings reveal five key insights. First, institutional frameworks – agreements, rules, and joint bodies – provide essential foundations for trust. Second, social ties such as shared languages and professional networks facilitate collaboration but need institutional support to endure. Third, trust functions across multiple levels: interpersonal, interorganizational, and interstate, which may evolve independently. Fourth, trust is dynamic, changing with political shifts, leadership turnover, and accumulated experience. Fifth, trust and data sharing co-evolve, transitioning from personal exchanges to institutionalized systems.
Conceptually, the thesis bridges two frameworks: one distinguishing rational, social, and psychological trust, and the empirically developed Trust Angles Framework, identifying risk-minimizing, value-shaping, and psychosocially-easing sources at different levels and the development of trust intensities. Methodologically, it demonstrates the value of qualitative, reflexive, and comparative approaches. Ultimately, trust is shown as context-dependent and negotiated, offering practical insights for advancing transboundary water cooperation.