Heterogeneous beliefs and the non-linear cobweb model.

Authors
Publication date 1997
Series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, TI 1997-115/1
Publisher Amserdam / Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute
Organisations
  • Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB) - Amsterdam School of Economics Research Institute (ASE-RI)
Abstract See the publication in the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2000), 34(2), 761-798.

This paper investigates price fluctuations in an evolutionary cobweb model with heterogeneous beliefs. Agents choose between free naive expectations and costly rational expectations, and update their beliefs according to a "fitness" measure such as past realized net profits. For non-linear, monotonic demand and supply curves, it is shown that the evolutionary dynamics exhibits bifurcation routes to strange attractors when the intensity of choice to switch prediction strategies increases.
Document type Working paper
Language English
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