Trends and Prospects for Transport Fuel Consumption in Brazil

According to the Nationally Determined Contributions, Brazil has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector and pledged to increase the share of biofuels in its energy matrix by approximately 18% in 2030. Thus, this chapter has two objectives: (i) to calculate greenhouse gas emissions from Brazilian road transport between 1970 and 2020; and (ii) to predict the Brazilian energy consumption of different fuels and GHG emissions for the 2020s. In conclusion, Brazil tends to reach its Nationally Determined Contributions target, increasing the use of biofuels in its energy matrix. Despite an optimistic scenario of increased use of biofuels, it should be noted that the consumption of gasoline also tends to grow, and greenhouse gas emissions tend to fall not significantly. Therefore, a vigorous energy transition to a low-carbon matrix in Brazilian road transport is not expected in the coming years.