Estimating illicit production of MDMA from its production waste, a Dutch case study

The Netherlands plays a key role in the global production of the synthetic illicit drug MDMA. However, the actual Dutch production of MDMA is difficult to quantify. The illicit production of MDMA results in large amounts of waste. This study uses amounts of waste found in the environment and production-related MDMA residues in wastewater to estimate the amount of MDMA that is produced. The MDMA produced, associated to the amount of waste found in the environment is 4.2 and 5.8 tons per year for two common synthesis routes. The MDMA produced, associated to production-related residues in wastewater is significantly larger, with 39.2 tons per year. The estimated MDMA production associated to waste in the environment and wastewater analysis is 43.4 and 45.0 tons per year for two common synthesis routes. Even though these estimates are difficult to validate, they are feasible when compared to prevalence-based consumption estimates or production estimates based on interceptions of precursors. The current study illustrates that waste of an illicit industry can shed light on its production volumes, thereby, complementing other efforts to estimate production, trade and use of synthetically produced illicit substances.