Wit-Rusland: dictatuur en legitimiteit tussen Rusland en Europa

André Gerrits & Kirsten Meijer focus on Belarus that is stereotypically presented as Europe's last dictatorship. President Aleksandr Lukashenka has established an authoritarian order, based on political stability and a relatively high standard of living, which all in all provides more than a modicum of legitimacy. Recently, however, things changed. The Russian Federation suddenly demanded world market prices for its energy de-liveries. The facade of elite unity showed its first cracks. Hesitantly Lukashenka initiated some reform measures. This article discusses these latest political developments in Belarus within the context of the country's international position: firmly tied to the Russian Federation but carefully seeking for openings in its troubled relations with the European Un-ion. The Union has attempted to influence domestic developments in Belarus through positive and negative means. The effects have been negligible. Belarus will not experience a democratic breakthrough in the short run. Relations with the Russian Federation will remain crucially important. However, the changes in Belarus and in relations between Belarus and the Russian Federation have enhanced the possibilities for a more effective EU strategy. The authors suggest a two-track policy for the European Union: stick to the conditions for normalization of relations which it agreed upon in 2006 and use its 'carrots' to stimulate the process of political change in Belarus