Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments

Open Access
Authors
Publication date 2008
Journal Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
Volume | Issue number 67 | 1
Pages (from-to) 116-133
Number of pages 18
Organisations
  • Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB) - Amsterdam School of Economics Research Institute (ASE-RI)
Abstract
We present results on expectation formation in a controlled experimental environment. In each period subjects are asked to predict the next price of a risky asset. The realized market price is derived from an unknown market equilibrium equation with feedback from individual forecasts. In most experiments prices deviate from the benchmark fundamental and bubbles emerge endogenously. These bubbles are inconsistent with rational expectations and seem to be driven by trend chasing behavior or "positive feedback expectations" of the participants. We also analyze individual predictions of participants and find that participants within a group tend to coordinate on a common prediction strategy.
Document type Article
Published at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2007.06.006
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Final peer-reviewed manuscript (post-print) (Accepted author manuscript)
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