Cascades or salmons? Longitudinal upstream and downstream effects of political participation

Digitally networked and new, unconventional activities allow citizens to participate politically in activities that are low in the effort and risks they bear. At the same time, low-effort types of participation are more loosely connected to democratic political systems, thereby challenging established modes of political decision-making. This can set in motion two competing dynamics: While some citizens move closer to the political system in their activities (upstream effects), others engage in political activities more distant from it (downstream effects). This study investigates non-electoral participation trajectories and tests intra-individual change in political participation types over time, exploring whether such dynamics depend on citizens’ exposure to political information. Utilizing a three-wave panel survey (n = 3490) and random intercept cross-lagged panel models with SEM, we find more evidence for downstream effects but detect overall diverse participation trajectories over time and a potentially crucial role of elections for non-electoral participation trajectories.