Effects of refugee settlement on citizens: A prospective longitudinal study of associations between perceived intergroup threat and mental health

The present study prospectively examines associations between citizens’ perceived symbolic and realistic threat and mental health before and after refugee settlement in their neighbourhood. Citizens in two Amsterdam (the Netherlands) neighbourhoods participated in the study (N = 280). A follow-up measurement after the settlement of refugees was conducted in one neighbourhood (n = 66). Cross-sectional results confirm that higher levels of perceived symbolic and realistic threat were both associated with poorer mental health. A prospective longitudinal analysis showed no increase in realistic or symbolic threat, but mental health was poorer in citizens after refugee settlement. Higher threat perceptions among citizens in the area before the settlement of refugees predicted poorer mental health after the settlement. This association was stronger than the reverse association (poorer mental health predicting higher threat perceptions). Policymakers should consider experienced threat levels among citizens when developing and communicating refugee settlement policies.