Geopolitical Losses and Gains from the Pathways of the Energy Transition in Brazil

The energy transition toward a new reality where fossil fuels are less consumed and renewables become predominating is a tendency for some countries, notably developed ones. As this situation unfolds, the balance of power in energy geopolitics will shift from oil-exporting countries to those with an energy supply system focused on renewables. Amidst this, Brazil faces challenges and dilemmas in its energy sector, particularly on which pathway should follow in this context. This work aims to identify and analyze possible impacts on Brazil’s energy geopolitics, where energy transition toward low carbon should be successful globally. Based on a qualitative approach, energy geopolitics concepts and the creation of scenarios, we discuss the outcomes Brazil’s energy geopolitics might take in a post-carbon world. The results demonstrated that: (i) energy transition sources are not yet in a position to replace or supplant fossil fuels; (ii) fossil fuels will hold sway over energy geopolitics for the foreseeable future; (iii) fossil fuels will continue to be an important component of Brazilian energy planning; and (iv) during the energy transition, Brazil’s main geopolitical benefit will be linked to its power to influence the South American region. In conclusion, the ability of countries to adapt to the new paradigm, in which renewables sources and carbon-free drive technologies have replaced the era of oil and natural gas, will determine their strengths and relevance in energy geopolitics. Concerning Brazil, the four scenarios suggest that the country should not seek short-term profits from the sale of its oil reserves due to the difficulty of entering a market with established powerful sellers.