Can competition between forecasters stabilize asset prices in learning to forecast experiments?

Authors
Publication date 12-2019
Journal Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control
Article number 103770
Volume | Issue number 109
Number of pages 25
Organisations
  • Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB) - Amsterdam School of Economics Research Institute (ASE-RI)
  • Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB)
Abstract
We conduct a learning to forecast asset pricing experiment that assumes that financial advisors and professional forecasters attract more investors when their price forecasts are more accurate. The competition between forecasters implies that the impact of their forecasts on realized market prices evolves endogenously. We investigate how these endogenous impacts affect price dispersion and mispricing relative to the fundamental price. Our results show that the effect of endogenous impacts depends on (i) the type of market dynamics (stable/unstable) and (ii) the sensitivity of impacts with respect to forecast accuracy (low/high). Compared to the baseline treatment, where impacts are constant and independent of forecast accuracy, price dispersion and mispricing is somewhat lower in stable markets when impacts are moderately sensitive to forecast accuracy. In contrast, impacts that are strongly sensitive to forecast accuracy can further destabilize unstable markets, amplifying price dispersion and mispricing.
Document type Article
Language English
Published at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2019.103770
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