From alarmed optimists to dismissive pessimists: Comparing energy-transition engagement across five citizen segments in the Netherlands

Societies across the globe face the urgent need to transition to sustainable and renewable energy systems. Because the success of this transition depends in part on citizen engagement, it is important to understand how different groups of citizens perceive and engage with it. Citizen segmentation offers a useful approach for identifying meaningful differences in how citizens relate to the energy transition. While citizen segmentation approaches are well established in climate change communication, they remain underutilized in the context of energy transitions. This paper addresses this gap by applying a climate-based segmentation framework to examine how citizen typologies, grounded in values, beliefs, norms, and efficacy perceptions, relate to engagement with the energy transition. Drawing on a nationally representative survey of Dutch adults (N = 2010), we conducted a latent profile analysis (LPA). We identified five distinct citizen segments, from alarmed optimists to dismissive pessimists, which differ in both climate concern and perceived efficacy of the energy transition. Regression analyses show that, above and beyond traditional demographic and political factors, segment membership predicts variation in a wide range of outcome variables related to energy transition engagement, including energy source support, emotional responses, participation, communication, and energy-saving behaviors. These findings offer actionable insights for targeted communication and policy strategies and highlight the value of psychological segmentation in designing socially robust and inclusive energy-transition governance.