Critical slowing down as an early warning signal for financial crises?

Open Access
Authors
Publication date 10-2019
Journal Empirical Economics
Volume | Issue number 57 | 4
Pages (from-to) 1201-1228
Number of pages 28
Organisations
  • Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB) - Amsterdam School of Economics Research Institute (ASE-RI)
  • Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB)
Abstract

Financial crises have repeatedly been coined as a potential application area in the recent literature on constructing early warning signals through identifying characteristics of critical slowing down on the basis of time series observations. To test this idea, we consider four historical financial crises—Black Monday 1987, the 1997 Asian Crisis, the 2000 Dot-com bubble burst, and the 2008 Financial Crisis—and investigate whether there is evidence for critical slowing down prior to these market collapses. We find statistical evidence for critical slowing down before Black Monday 1987, while the results are mixed or insignificant for the more recent financial crises.

Document type Article
Language English
Related publication Critical slowing down as an early warning signal for financial crises
Published at https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-018-1527-3
Other links https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85051682329
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