“A chokehold position” ethnic voting among Kenyan university students in times of “hustler populism”

In a nation where ethnic voting has dominated since independence, the cross-ethnic success of William Ruto’s 2022 presidential campaign centred on “hustler populism” suggests a potential shift in voter motivations away from ethnicity towards socio-economic considerations. As scholars cast doubt, this study empirically explores whether such a shift occurred, focusing on a group that could be considered as “first movers,” i.e. highly educated young Kenyans. Drawing on survey responses from 346 university students and 12 in-depth interviews, we find that students feel stuck in a “chokehold position.” Whereas the interviews show that they principally reject ethnic voting, the survey results reveal that ethnicity remains decisive, especially if students have a co-ethnic in the race. These findings indicate continuity alongside change, as well as underscore the difficulty in overcoming instrumental reasoning in voting behaviour in societies with unstable political parties and histories of uneven development.