Did the recent unemployment boom in the Netherlands affect crime rates? Evidence from a 2005-2012 panel data analysis

This paper uses municipality-level unemployment rates during 2005-2012 to identify the effect of unemployment on different crime rates. The fixed effects regression finds evidence for a relationship between unemployment and burglary. For every ten percent increase of the unemployment rate, burglary crime shows a three percent increase. Assuming a mean crime cost of $ 46,000 per burglary, the unemployment boom from four percent to seven percent between 2005 and 2013 led to $ 725 million (1999 dollars) additional crime costs. The results indicate that, with respect to burglary, motivational factors of unemployment dominate opportunity factors. The analysis provides no evidence for a significant relationship between unemployment during 2005-2012 and assaults, sexual offences and vandalism.